An article late this afternoon on Yahoo!Finance went further in the discussion of what the latest news might really mean in terms of economic recovery. While new single-family construction showed a slight increase in August, the growing glut of unsold homes coupled with lowered values - all fueled by foreclosures and job uncertainty - lead to the conclusion that hitting bottom is only the beginning. To quote Miley Cyrus (because we have some exposure to pre-teens), it's "the climb".
Depending on the extent to which the government's loan modification program succeeds, allowing up to 9 million homeowners to avoid foreclosure, and the success of the stimulus program in creating jobs and a resultant feeling of job security, at some point foreclosures will fall, buyers will return to the market, values will stop declining and the housing market will stabilize. Whew.
But even if we are hitting bottom now, it will take some time to reduce the inventory of unsold existing homes (including the thousands - or more - of foreclosures yet to be put back on the market which will cause prices to keep falling in some areas) to a level at which appreciable new construction will begin again . And new construction is a huge indicator of how stable the housing market is (witness the reaction on Wall Street on Monday to the news of Lowe's better-than-expected earnings).
While economists believe that even if we are hitting bottom it will be at least mid-2010 before we begin the climb back up in terms of an actual housing recovery, economist Paul Krugman believes that climb could take 5 years or more.
All that said, it is still a great time to buy or refinance a home if you are in a position to do so and you can find the right loan for your situation. FHA loans are on the rise and can make the difference for first-time homebuyers. For buyers, especially those looking for a home as opposed to an investment, one key is to not let the low prices lure you into a house you can't afford to maintain. There are some great buys, but as the market recovers and the values increase so will property taxes; also the more house you buy the more you will pay for upkeep. It is easy to very quickly become house poor!
Please contact us at Blue Star Appraisals Inc. for more information on appraisals, market conditions in your area, or referrals to mortgage brokers, lenders and realtors. The most helpful appraisal products today for the average homeowner are those for pre-listing value, property tax protest (only a couple of weeks left to file), PMI removal and pre-renovation (to avoid overimproving your home). Call for a consultation today!
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