While locally the news has been relatively good regarding home values (holding better than the national average) and sales (flattening out to increasing), new worries are surfacing regarding the number of bank-owned foreclosures that will hit the market sometime in the next year.
As banks have worked with owners to try and forestall foreclosures, the number of houses that have actually reverted to the banks has been kept down. However, it is becoming clear that many homeowners are in such deep distress that their homes will not be saved, and as they work their way through the system the banks are going to start foreclosing. We've talked before about the fact that many homes posted each month for foreclosure are actually not sold, because the owners and lenders are trying to come to terms. As those modifications fall through, the number of foreclosed properties hitting the market will rise, and values will drop.
There is no real agreement as to how long it will take for this "shadow inventory" to hit the market, some experts believe it will start as early as the last quarter of 2009. If you're a prospective seller, as tenuous as the market is, you might be better off trying to sell now - especially if you are in an area that is at risk for a large number of value-affecting foreclosures. On the other hand, if you're a buyer who isn't in a hurry - the tax credit incentive notwithstanding - a glut of freshly marketed foreclosures could drive values down by as much as 6%, give or take.
Whether you are buying or selling, please contact us at Blue Star Appraisals Inc. if you need a referral to a realtor, mortgage broker or direct lender to help you through the process of what is likely to be the largest and most significant financial transaction that you will make.
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